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M. Ward



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    ORAL 19 - Radiation for Localized Lung Cancer (ID 126)

    • Event: WCLC 2015
    • Type: Oral Session
    • Track: Treatment of Localized Disease - NSCLC
    • Presentations: 1
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      ORAL19.07 - A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Distant Metastases after Lung Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy for Early Stage Lung Cancer (ID 1270)

      11:50 - 12:01  |  Author(s): M. Ward

      • Abstract
      • Presentation
      • Slides

      Background:
      While stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) results in excellent local control, distant metastases (DM) remain the most prevalent form of failure. In this analysis, we develop and internally validate a nomogram to predict DM following SBRT for NSCLC.

      Methods:
      We queried our institutional registry of patients treated with lung SBRT over the past decade (2003-2014) and identified 729 patients with early stage NSCLC eligible for analysis. All patients were treated with definitive intent. Initial patient and tumor variables predicting the likelihood of developing distant metastases were identified from a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model. A nomogram was developed from the initial model using 16 candidate variables and was reduced to the find the best fitting parsimonious model. The nomogram was then internally validated using a 1000 bootstrap resampling process. Accuracy of the nomogram was measured using c-statistics.

      Results:
      The median follow up was 15.2 months. 157 patients (22%) developed DM at a median time of 10.3 (range 0.2-68.4) months. The median time to death after development of DM was 4.5 months. Sites of DM included lung (113/157 patients), bone (36/157 patients), liver (27/157 patients), brain (25/157 patients), adrenal (8/157 patients), and other (7/157 patients). Age at start of radiotherapy (p = 0.051), tumor size (p = 0.009), PET SUV (p = 0.026), and the presence of synchronous primaries (p = 0.048) were all predictive of DM on multivariable analysis. Using seven patient and tumor variables (Age, BMI, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Tumor Size, PET SUV, Medical Operability, and Presence of a synchronous primary NSCLC), our nomogram successfully predicted distant metastasis and has an internally validated c-statistic of 0.606 (95% CI: 0.563, 0.648). Internal validation with bootstrapping demonstrated persistent validity of the nomogram in predicting distant metastases. Figure 1



      Conclusion:
      This novel internally validated nomogram can predict the risk of distant metastases in early stage NSCLC treated with SBRT. External validation of this nomogram is warranted. This nomogram may help define subgroups for stratification in future clinical trials and identify patients who may benefit from adjuvant systemic therapies following lung SBRT.

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