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S. Peacock



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    ORAL 09 - CT Screening - New Data and Risk Assessment (ID 95)

    • Event: WCLC 2015
    • Type: Oral Session
    • Track: Screening and Early Detection
    • Presentations: 1
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      ORAL09.07 - Economic Evidence for the Use of Risk-Selection and Risk-Stratification for Lung Cancer Screening Programs (ID 2928)

      11:39 - 11:50  |  Author(s): S. Peacock

      • Abstract
      • Presentation
      • Slides

      Background:
      Screening for lung cancer according to age and smoking history alone could cost billions of dollars of public health expenditure due to the high incidence of potential participants. Risk-adapted lung cancer screening strategies such as participant selection (based on published risk prediction models such as the PLCOm2012 model) and malignancy risk based screening protocols may reduce program costs while improving outcomes among current and former smokers at risk of developing the disease. The Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer Study (PanCan) was designed with the objective of providing economic evidence for an affordable lung cancer-screening program in Canada.

      Methods:
      Data for 2537 screening participants in the PanCan study (median follow-up time of 4 years) and 25,914 eligible participants from the NLST-CXR arm were included in the analysis. There was adequate power and follow-up to inform the transition probabilities in model and provide the distribution to test all model parameters simultaneously in a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The cost and health utility inputs are from patient-level trial data with defined ranges of certainty.

      Results:
      Our results show that risk selection using the PanCan risk prediction model could reduce the need to screen 21,022 (81%) of the NLST population if risk prediction were applied. If risk prediction were applied to Canadians who met the NLST criteria, 2 year program costs could be reduced by 400 million dollars and nearly half a million people could be spared the potential harms from screening that is not likely to result in a Cancer diagnosis. With the economic evidence from the PanCan and NLST trials, we report our initial cost-effectiveness results and will show, for the first time, a definitive description of the uncertainty surrounding our cost-effectiveness ratios.

      Conclusion:
      Using a model loaded with patient-level screening data has enabled us to predict the likelihood that risk-adapted screening will fall below most commonly referenced thresholds of acceptability for cancer interventions. The initial results and characterization of the parameters affecting cost-effectiveness will be presented. [*]on behalf of the PanCan study team The panCan study is sponsored by the Terry Fox Research Institute and the Canadian Partnership against Cancer, ARCC is funded by the CCSRI The authors thank the National Cancer Institute for access to NCI’s data collected by the National Lung Screening Trial. The statements contained herein are solely those of the authors and do not represent or imply concurrence or endorsement by NCI

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