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S. Li



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    MO08 - NSCLC - Early Stage (ID 117)

    • Event: WCLC 2013
    • Type: Mini Oral Abstract Session
    • Track: Medical Oncology
    • Presentations: 1
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      MO08.08 - A cost-effectiveness analysis of the 15-gene expression signature in guiding adjuvant chemotherapy in early stage non-small cell lung cancer based on the JBR.10 trial (ID 1962)

      17:00 - 17:05  |  Author(s): S. Li

      • Abstract
      • Presentation
      • Slides

      Background
      The NCIC CTG JBR.10 trial demonstrated that adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) improves survival in resected stage IB/II non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) compared to observation. A 15-gene expression signature was developed from the trial population and subsequently validated to stratify patients with resected NSCLC into low and high risk prognostic groups. The signature may also be predictive for greater benefit from ACT in high risk patients (Zhu et al. JCO 2010), but this has not yet been validated. This gene expression signature may offer a risk stratification strategy to identify patients most likely to benefit from ACT. We conducted an exploratory economic analysis to assess the impact of the use of this gene signature compared to current clinical staging to guide ACT decisions in resected early stage NSCLC.

      Methods
      We developed a decision analytic model populated by the NCIC CTG JBR.10 trial cost and outcome data, including direct medical costs and overall survival (OS). Utility for each health state was estimated from quality of life data to generate quality-adjusted survival. The analysis was performed over a lifetime horizon from the perspective of the Canadian public health care system, expressed in 2013 Canadian dollars. Survival and costs were discounted at 5% per year. We determined the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of ACT versus observation in resected stage IB/II NSCLC in the following two scenarios: (1) gene signature-directed ACT, where patients classified as having high risk of recurrence receive ACT and those at low risk are observed; and (2) clinical stage-directed ACT, where gene signature profiling is not performed – those with stage IB tumours >4cm or stage II NSCLC receive ACT, and those with stage IB tumours <4cm are observed. Nonparametric bootstrapping to estimate 95% confidence intervals (CI) and multi-way sensitivity analyses were performed.

      Results
      The analysis included 52 patients in the gene signature-based strategy and 125 patients in the stage-based strategy with available direct medical costs and gene signature data. The mean survival gain of ACT versus observation was 2.28 years using gene signature-directed selection, and 1.59 years using stage-directed selection. The discounted ICER of ACT versus observation was $8,327/life-year gained (LYG; 95% CI, $395 to $19,590) using the gene signature-directed approach, and $5,623/LYG (95% CI, -$2,161 to $14,354) for the clinical approach. There was no significant difference in the ICER between the two strategies (p=0.52). The discounted ICUR was $11,315/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY; 95% CI, $211 to $27,314) using the gene signature-directed approach, and $7,728/QALY (95% CI, -$3,080 to $19,825) for the clinical approach. Sensitivity analyses showed that the ICER was most sensitive to changes in the survival hazard ratio (i.e. treatment benefit) and utility, but less sensitive to the cost of the gene signature (range $0 to $10,000 per case, with corresponding ICER $15,794 to $28,194/LYG, respectively).

      Conclusion
      This exploratory analysis suggests that use of the 15-gene expression signature to guide decisions for ACT in resected stage IB/II NSCLC patients could be highly cost-effective. Further validation of the signature’s impact on ACT outcomes is needed.

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