Author of

• 12791

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  P3.19 - Poster Session 3 - Imaging (ID 181)

  • Event: WCLC 2013
  • Type: Poster Session
  • Track: Imaging, Staging & Screening
  • Presentations: 1
  • Moderators:
  • Coordinates: 10/30/2013, 09:30 - 16:30, Exhibit Hall, Ground Level

  • 12803

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    P3.19-012 - Comparison of three models to estimate the probability of malignancy in Chinese patients with solitary pulmonary nodules (ID 1951)

    09:30 - 09:30  |  Author(s): X. Cao
    • Abstract

    Background
    A solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN) is radiologically defined as an intraparenchymal lung lesion that is < 3 cm in diameter and is not associated with atelectasis or adenopathy. The diagnosis of SPN is challenging. A prediction model would facilitates this task. Until now, three SPN prediction models have been developed, which are Mayo model, VA model and Peking University (PU) model. We compared the accuracy of three models in Chinese patients with SPN.

    Methods
    From July 2003 to December 2011, 154 surgical patients with an SPN measuring 3-30mm from Guangdong Lung Cancer Institute were included in this study. Data on gender, age, cancer history, smoking, nodule size, spiculation, calcification, border and final pathological diagnosis were collected retrospectively . Each patient’s final diagnosis was compared with probability calculated by MAYO model, VA model and PU model. The accuracy of each model was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calibration curve.

    Results
    The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of PU model(0.800; 95% CI 0.708 to 0.891) was larger than that of MAYO model(0.753; 95% CI 0.650 to 0.857) and VA model(0.728; 95% CI 0.623 to 0.833), but this difference was not statistically significant. Calibration curves showed that all the three models overestimated malignancy.Figure 1 Figure 1 Receiver operating characteristic curves of Mayo model, VA model and PU model. AUC(Mayo)= 0.753(95% CI 0.650 to 0.857). AUC(VA)= 0.728; 95% CI 0.623 to 0.833. AUC(PU)= 0.800; 95% CI 0.708 to 0.891.

    Conclusion
    Three prediction models are sufficiently accurate in SPN malignancy prediction in Chinese patients.